No ozone layer equals no life.
Anton Petrov : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKK0dgDIxKY
Session #8 of August 2, 2026 – French translation –
original English.
Location: Mezzaverde, Belgium
Comments by Wivine.
The following is the transcript of a
video by Anton Petrov. He always discusses new scientific discoveries in all
fields. I don't watch them all, only if the topic interests me.
The ozone layer and its preservation
is a subject that is very close to my heart. As are nuclear bombs, both small
and large, nuclear waste from nuclear power plants that doesn't decay in the
short term, the misuse of chemicals in agriculture and food, the long-term side
effects of medications and vaccines, the use and research on viruses as
biological weapons, and so on. I'm certainly not the only one who is concerned
about these things.
This video also discusses the hole in
the ozone layer. I have added an explanation in the transcript for those who
are not aware of it.
Fortunately, scientific studies are conducted
on these subjects across different continents to prevent the worst or to
address the problems. However, I have observed throughout my life that when
public opinion becomes aware of an issue, it puts more pressure on governments
worldwide to resolve it.
The End.
Transcript.
This is Anton and today we're going to be discussing
something that kind of sounds like a cynical science fiction story or basically
another episode of Black Mirror except that in this case this is not science
fiction and is happening in real life and more importantly right above our
heads in the upper atmosphere.
But before we discuss the main topic, as you might have
heard already, SpaceX, the company that has completely revolutionized how we
get to space, is reportedly preparing for an IPO, initial public offering, and
extremely likely, sometimes super soon in mid-2026, with analysts suggesting
the evolution of approximately $2 trillion, which would basically make this the
largest IPO in human history. But because this is not a finance channel, I'm
not really going to be discussing the IPO or what it even means.
Mostly because there is a science story here after all.
Because in this case, this massive influx of capital isn't just about making
Elon Musk just a little bit richer. It's intended to fund a project that could
change the planet's atmosphere forever.
And that's because here the plan is to launch up to 1
million satellites to create orbital data centers and to expand the current
Starlink even more.
And while having highspeed internet pretty much
everywhere, including your flight sounds incredible, or the idea of having
these data centers in space, creating artificial intelligence without
cluttering the planet also sounds kind of good. Today we're going to discuss
several studies that have now confirmed something I've discussed last year and
something that was just a little bit scary because it turns out that what comes
up must come down after all. And when it does, it does not just disappear. It sort
of pollutes the upper atmosphere in a way we really don't want it to be
polluted with some serious implications for the ozone layer.
All right, so let's discuss some of these new studies and
new discoveries in a bit more detail.
Mega constellations
Let's briefly discuss the idea of these mega
constellations first. Because in this case, it's not just SpaceX. It's several
companies, including companies from China, that are now making these big plans
without really considering potential consequences.
I guess that we're entering the era of mega
constellations. For many decades, the maximum number of active satellites in
space was always numbered in hundreds. But today, especially in the last 5
years, it's basically over 14,000 with Starlink accounting for more than half
of all operational satellites in orbit.
These are not permanent satellites by design. They only
stay in the low Earth orbit for approximately 5 years.
The first Starling satellite was launched in May of 2019 and it was only in 2024 and 2025 that both scientists
and amateur astronomers started to notice something unusual.
Spaceweather.com created a beautiful image to illustrate what
is now known as the Great Starlink re-entry event.
Starting in 2024, there's been a huge upsurge of
re-entering satellites from those first satellites launched in 2019 that have
now been retired. Ever since that date, this number has been going up. Several
websites are tracking re-entries in real time, and you can see that pretty much
every single day, quite a lot of satellites are basically Starlink.
But on average, as of May of 2026, anywhere from one to
five Starling satellites have now been burning up in the Earth's atmosphere.
As you can imagine, at some point, especially in the next
5 years, thousands of them will do the same. Excluding other companies like
Amazon and those other Chinese companies, SpaceX alone has already filed
paperwork for at least 30,000 more satellites to go up in the next few years.
And on top of these, 1 million satellites to act as a distributed computer in
the sky, or basically a kind of an AI data network.
Scientific studies.
This is where we have this one major issue. A problem
that might become a serious concern in the next few decades. As these
satellites burn up in the atmosphere, they don't just vanish. All these metal
that they're made from must go somewhere. While most of the time it turns from
a solid piece of machinery into a cloud of extremely tiny metallic vapors and
aerosol particles that stay in the upper atmosphere for possibly up to 10
years. It's only because of recent studies from 2023 and 2024 that scientists
finally started to realize there might be a serious problem here.
We're essentially conducting a giant uncontrolled
chemical experiment in our own atmosphere.
One of the first studies on this was in September of
2023. Here, a study led by Dan Murphy and his team at Noah flew a specialized
aircraft into the stratosphere where they discovered that 10% of all sulfuric
acid particles in the atmosphere already contained a lot of metals from
spacecraft with the prediction being that as these mega constellations grow
this could rise to 50% over time with the biggest concern in this case being aluminum
oxide.
Aluminum Oxide.
Most Starling satellites are approximately 60% aluminum
and that's because when they burn up, they do create nano particles of aluminum
oxide which then acts as a catalyst for drum roll ozone depletion.
Ozone layer threat.
So once again, we have something that potentially
threatens the ozone layer once again.
The hole in the ozone layer, caused by
CFCs
[Wivine: CFCs
(chlorofluorocarbons) are man-made gases created from carbon, chlorine, and
fluorine since 1928. They have been used in refrigerators, air conditioners,
and aerosols.
The ozone hole is a
significant depletion of the ozone layer located in the stratosphere, primarily
over Antarctica. It is caused by chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) gases and halons.
Thanks to the Montreal Protocol, signed in 1987 to ban their use, this hole is
gradually shrinking, and if everyone does what they must, it should disappear
between 2040 and 2066, depending on the region, returning to pre-1980 levels.
This problem is therefore still not solved; it will take several more decades.]
It was discovered that these particles speed up chemical
reactions quite dramatically by helping chlorine atoms destroy ozone molecules
over time. Those scientists worked very hard to ban CFCs back in the 80s
because they were discovered to also do the same.
Now we might be accidentally creating a new problem that,
unlike CFCs, might be even more difficult to solve because a lot of those
satellites are already up there.
Full impact of satellites, expected by
2040.
But the unnerving part in this case is this somewhat
unusual delay. And that's because these particles are released extremely high
up in the atmosphere. It would take them about 20 to maybe 30 years to slowly
drift down to the level where the ozone layer sits. Which essentially implies
that satellites burning up right now will not have their full impact until
sometimes in 2040s or 20 years from today.
Because millions of satellites are now planned for launch,
by the time they're finished, it might be already too late to stop the
reaction.
Studies on the Falcon 9 SpaceX launch rockets
Now we have a major confirmation from another study. This
is the most recent study from 2026, and this was the measurement of lithium
plumes from the uncontrolled re-entry of Falcon 9 rockets. Okay, so not really
related to satellites but still related to massive numbers of launches that
SpaceX and other companies are planning.
In this case there was a discovered Falcon 9 rocket that
reentered the atmosphere over Europe. Because it was tracked quite actively,
researchers in Germany decided to track it with additional systems. They used a
high-tech laser system referred to as lighter that detected a sudden massive
spike of lithium at an altitude of 96 km or 60 miles. In this case, it was
approximately 10 times the natural background level. And while having measured
this by using atmospheric models, they confirmed that all of this came from
this very specific SpaceX rocket.
Why does this matter?
Well, lithium is not something that naturally exists in
the high amounts in the upper atmosphere. So, things like meteors, for example,
usually bring in things like iron and magnesium. But our satellites and of
course various rocket leftovers are full of various exotic materials, including
aluminum alloys, and various metals that can in theory once again affect the
ozone layer.
Even a single Falcon 9 upper stage contains approximately
30 kg of lithium, which might not sound like a lot, is equivalent to hundreds
of years of natural lithium influx because Earth usually only receives 80 g per
day. Here we're talking about 30 kg or approximately 66 lb. and that introduces
a completely new problem nobody considered before up until these recent
studies.
Future danger of air pollution.
All this pollution coming from these re-entries are now
potentially a major hazard for the next few decades. Because of that SpaceX
IPO, there's an extremely high chance it will only get worse, especially if
those million satellites end up being a reality.
At the same time, it's not all doom and gloom. Because
there might be some solutions, even though they're a little bit quirkier.
Possible solutions?
Science and engineering are always about identifying
problems and finding solutions.
The first interesting discovery is basically to track
these re-entries to study them more and to discover how dangerous they are.
One intriguing study discovered that seismic sensors, the
sensors responsible for tracking earthquakes, can also detect solar booms from
re-entering space junk such as these relatively large satellites. This allows
us, in theory, to see precisely where and how satellites are breaking up, which
can then help scientists to better model where this pollution is going and what
sort of chemicals are being created in a process.
A much more hands-on solution might have come from a very
unusual source in Japan and from the least likely source, a Japanese forestry
company or technically the logging and processing company engaged in
construction of houses made from wooden materials.
Back in 2024, they launched what's known as Lignosat, a kind
of proof concept, but was basically a wooden satellite. And though at first
this was just some kind of a stunt to promote their company, it might have
accidentally provided us with a possible solution.
Wood burns up completely into water vapor and carbon
dioxide. It leaves no metallic nanoparticles. So, in theory, if those companies
launching mega constellations were to make their satellites out of wood, it might
potentially solve a lot of issues.
Based on this launch, we know that this seems to work.
Montreal Protocol for space junk.
More importantly, there's now a push for a Montreal
protocol for space junk, or basically some kind of international agreement to
regulate what satellites are made from and what they end up adding to the atmosphere
upon their re-entry.
Because even though we're not really considering any of
this yet, right now, it has a very high chance of becoming a major issue by sometimes
in 2040s.
This new space age or the age of mega constellations is
dramatically increasing the mass of human-made material re-entering the upper atmosphere.
Nothing to do with climate change.
To be clear here, it's no longer about climate change or
having all sorts of (other) space junk in space. Those are separate issues that
are not relevant here.
Here we're talking about a completely new issue that we
might have serious trouble solving if these mega constellations end up growing increasingly
to eventually end up reducing the ozone layer dramatically on the planet.
This upcoming SpaceX IPO tells us one thing. The
expansion into space is only going to accelerate and these millions of
satellites are almost certainly coming. So, you know, get your SPF creams ready
and stuff because it's not just going to be about sunburn.
No ozone layer equals no life.
Conclusion
If we are going to build these mega constellations and
have this massive infrastructure in orbit, we need to make sure that we're not
destroying the very thing that keeps us alive right here on the ground.
End.
MEZZA VERDE
GROUP.